Purpose

1. Whether do “labour shortages” exist?
2. Whether does age structure of labour force matter?
3. How do we estimate abundance of human resource (HRA)?

\[ Y_{it} \sim N(\phi_{it} + \mu_{i}, \sigma^{2}_{yi}) \\ \phi_{it} \sim N(\nu_{it} + \gamma_{t}, \sigma^{2}_{\phi_{i}}) \\ \nu_{it} \sim N(2\nu_{it-1} + \nu_{it-2}, \sigma^{2}_{\nu_{i}}) \\ \gamma_{t} \sim N(2\gamma_{t-1} + \gamma_{t-2}, \sigma^{2}_{\gamma_{t}}) \\ \] (Where) \(\mu_{i}\): level; \(\nu_{it}\): trend; \(\gamma_{t}\): intrinsic growth

Results 1/2

Conclusion

1. Labour redundancies exist
2. Age-selective mismatches appear to occur.
3. Human resource abundance can be etimated as the potential number of eligible labour force.

Results 2/2